The Regional Consequences of Territorial Disputes: An Empirical Analysis of the South China Sea Disputes
| Author | Kentaro Sakuwa |
| Published date | 01 December 2017 |
| Date | 01 December 2017 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/2347797017732228 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
The Regional Consequences
of Territorial Disputes:
An Empirical Analysis of the
South China Sea Disputes
Kentaro Sakuwa1
Abstract
How do territorial disputes shape regional contexts within which politics among
local states takes place? This paper analyses regional impacts of territorial
disputes drawing on the case of South China Sea and statistical data. I argue that
‘local security externalities’ produced by ongoing territorial disputes influence
not only direct disputants but also other states in the regional neighbourhood.
Escalated disputes in the South China Sea exacerbated China’s relationships with
Japan—which is not a direct disputant—because Japan shares important stakes
in the disputed area and China’s assertive policy was perceived as a sign of its
willingness to use force and pursue a ‘hegemonic’ ambition in the region. Such
effect is also confirmed by a time-series of analysis of the post-Cold War Sino-
Japanese relationships. Thus, this paper empirically shows that ongoing territorial
disputes may influence a larger group of regional states, thus shaping a regional
context for political interactions.
Keywords
International conflict, rivalry, regional politics, time-series analysis
Introduction
How do territorial disputes shape regional contexts within which politics among
local states takes place? What regional effects do territorial disputes produce?
This paper analyses regional impacts of territorial disputes drawing on the case
of South China Sea and statistical data of disputes among East Asian states.
Journal of Asian Security
and International Affairs
4(3) 316–336
2017 SAGE Publications India
Private Limited
SAGE Publications
sagepub.in/home.nav
DOI: 10.1177/2347797017732228
http://aia.sagepub.com
1
Assistant Professor, Department of International Politics, School of International Politics, Economics,
and Communication, Aoyama Gakuin University, Tokyo, Japan.
Corresponding author:
Kentaro Sakuwa, Assistant Professor, Department of International Politics, School of International
Politics, Economics, and Communication, Aoyama Gakuin University, 4-4-25 Shibuya, Shibuya-ku,
Tokyo 150-0002, Japan.
E-mail: sakuwa@sipeb.aoyama.ac.jp
Article
Sakuwa 317
It attempts to contribute to the literature by exploring ramifications of territorial
disputes beyond a disputing dyad. The paper shows that territorial disputes may
influence a larger group of regional states, thus shaping a regional context for
political interactions.
The importance of territorial disputes has been widely recognized in the
international conflict literature. Effective control of territory is an essential
requirement for modern sovereign states, and threat to territorial integrity is
among the most pressing security concerns for any state in the international
system. Reflecting this fact, scholars consider territorial disputes to be impor-
tant predictors of international conflict. States involved in territorial disputes
are likely to form alliances, initiate military buildup, and further tend to experi-
ence wars. Thus, territorial disputes have been considered more important and
direct sources of conflict than simple geographic contiguity (Senese, 2005;
Senese & Vasquez, 2005).
Studies have found that the territorial disputes also influence a broader set of
phenomena. Territorial disputes affect the dynamics of international rivalries.
There are states that regard each other as threatening competitors, and many
such rivalries involve ‘spatial’ issues including territorial disputes and control of
specific areas (Colaresi, Rasler & Thompson, 2007). Rivalries over territorial
issues are likely to escalate to wars particularly among minor states. Non-
contiguous rivals at best tend to join ongoing wars rather than initiating wars.
In other words, the combination of territorial dispute, geographic contiguity, and
rivalry particularly makes a dyadic relationship prone to fighting (Rasler &
Thompson, 2000, 2006; Vasquez, 1996). Moreover, recent studies have reported
evidences that territorial disputes can cause rivalries to emerge and peaceful
settlements of these disputes encourage termination of rivalries. Because acqui-
sition of a territory by one side tends to tip the capability balance between
two states, the presence of territorial disputes makes disputants unable to credibly
commit to agreements. In the long run, this causes mutual mistrust and enduring
rivalry between the states unless borders are peacefully settled (Owsiak & Rider,
2013; Rider & Owsiak, 2015).
Territorial disputes also have an impact on domestic politics. Counter arguing
the democratic peace thesis, which claims that democracies produce peace among
themselves, the recent ‘territorial peace’ argument suggests that peaceful border
settlement may cause both democracy and peace, rather than democracy causing
peace (Gibler, 2007). This line of argument builds on the linkage between war
making and state making. External threat environment, which often forces states to
prepare for and fight external wars, encourages concentration of power within
states. Domestic political inequality hinders democratization by enabling auto-
cratic leaders to maintain their control of a state (Rasler & Thompson, 2004;
Thompson, 1996). Recent studies also suggest that peaceful resolution of territorial
issues with neighbouring countries increases the likelihood of democratization.
Territorial threat targeting a state causes political centralization, which in turn
inhibits democratization. With a low level of territorial threat, states are likely to be
decentralized and democratize (Gibler & Tir, 2010, 2014; Owsiak, 2013).
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