The Persistency of the India–Pakistan Conflict: Chances and Obstacles of the Bilateral Composite Dialogue
| Author | Thorsten Wojczewski |
| Published date | 01 December 2014 |
| Date | 01 December 2014 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/2347797014551269 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
The Persistency of the
India–Pakistan Conflict:
Chances and Obstacles
of the Bilateral Composite
Dialogue
Thorsten Wojczewski
Abstract
This article investigates the underlying causes for the persistency of the India–
Pakistan conflict and, on this basis, the chances and obstacles of the bilateral
composite dialogue initiated in 2004. In particular, it wants to provide a theo-
retically grounded account of the factors that facilitated and constrained the
bilateral composite dialogue process. Drawing on the regional security complex
theory, this article examines the rivalry between the two South Asian nuclear
powers on four levels of analysis: the domestic, the regional, the interregional
and the global level. The analysis shows that there have been some substantial
changes on all four levels in the recent decade or so and that these changes have
provided more beneficial conditions for a peace process. These changes include,
inter alia, India’s new regional policy, the consequences of the 9/11 terrorist
attacks for the region and India’s growing power capacities. However, major
obstacles to the India–Pakistan dialogue and a permanent conflict resolution
continue to persist: the dominant role of the military in Pakistan, conflicting
national identities and the still partially contested nature of statehood in India
and Pakistan, which is in the case of Pakistan linked to the growing power of
Islamic fundamentalists.
Keywords
India, Pakistan, bilateral composite dialogue, peace process, regional security
complex theory, national security
Article
Journal of Asian Security
and International Affairs
1(3) 319–345
2014 SAGE Publications India
Private Limited
SAGE Publications
Los Angeles, London,
New Delhi, Singapore,
Washington DC
DOI: 10.1177/2347797014551269
http://aia.sagepub.com
Thorsten Wojczewski is a Research Fellow at the German Institute of Global and Area
Studies in Hamburg, and a doctoral candidate at the University of Kiel, Germany. He has
also been a Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses,
New Delhi, India. E-mail: thorsten.wojczewski@giga-hamburg.de
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 1, 3 (2014): 319–345
320 Thorsten Wojczewski
Introduction
The relationship between India and Pakistan is fraught with mutual mistrust and
antagonism and has been one of the most enduring and dangerous rivalries in
contemporary world politics. The rivalry generated four wars, frequent skirmishes
at the Line of Control (LOC), numerous crises with a high escalation potential and
an arms race, which culminated in the nuclearization of both countries in 1998.
After several failed attempts India and Pakistan, however, managed to establish a
bilateral composite dialogue in January 2004. The dialogue initially led to consid-
erable rapprochement and raised hope for a permanent détente, but the optimism
was soon dashed due to persistent Indo-Pak conflict. This article seeks to shed
light on the causes of the persistency of Indo-Pakistan conflict and, on this basis,
investigate the chances and obstacles of the bilateral composite dialogue. The
questions that the article seeks to answer are: What has prevented a permanent
détente and conflict resolution between India and Pakistan in the past? Against the
backdrop of persistent Indo-Pak hostility, how can the initiation and achievements
of the composite dialogue be explained? What are the further prospects of this
dialogue process after its discontinuation in the wake of the Mumbai terrorist
attacks of November 2008?
The theoretical framework for the analysis is the regional security complex
theory (RSCT) devised by Buzan and Wæver (2003). A basic thesis of this article
is that structural factors on the four levels of analysis—domestic, regional, inter-
regional and global—proposed by the theory have shaped the India–Pakistan con-
flict in a crucial way and that these factors have impeded a conflict resolution in
the past. The RSCT is combined with insights of subaltern realism (Ayoob, 1995,
2011) and liberal international relations (IR) theory (Moravcsik, 1997, 2010). The
proposed analytical approach enables us to study not only how material and non-
material factors on different levels of analysis facilitate specific threat construc-
tions and contribute to their persistence, but also how changes can occur.
The article provides a theoretically grounded study of the factors that have
facilitated and constrained the bilateral composite dialogue process.1 It aims to
show that the chances for a peace process have been enhanced by changes on all
four levels of analysis. These changes include, inter alia, India’s new regional
policy, the consequences of the 9/11 terrorist attacks for the region and India’s
growing power capacities. However, major obstacles to the India–Pakistan dia-
logue and a permanent conflict resolution continue to persist: the dominating role
of the army in Pakistan, conflicting national identities and the still partially con-
tested nature of statehood in India and Pakistan. This article is divided into three
parts. In the first section, the theoretical framework for the analysis is elaborated.
The second section outlines the process of the India–Pakistan composite dialogue.
In the third section, the evolution of the South Asian security complex is analyzed
on the four different levels in order to identify the deeper causes for the persis-
tency of the conflict and the factors that have facilitated and constrained the bilat-
eral composite dialogue process.
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