Tangible–Intangible Factors Interaction on Hostility Escalation and Rivalry Endurance: The Case of India–Pakistan Rivalry
| Published date | 01 August 2015 |
| DOI | 10.1177/2347797015586125 |
| Date | 01 August 2015 |
| Author | Srini Sitaraman |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Tangible–Intangible Factors
Interaction on Hostility
Escalation and Rivalry
Endurance: The Case
of India–Pakistan Rivalry
Srini Sitaraman1
Abstract
A major contribution of the enduring rivalry literature is that the same pair
of states—commonly referred to as dyads—are the cause for the majority of
violent territorial changes and low-intensity conflicts. Enduring rivalries account
for almost half of the militarized disputes during the past 200 years. Expanding
literature on enduring rivalries informs us that militarized disputes and crises
are influenced by past outcomes, internal dynamics of conflict behaviour and the
prospects of future disputes. This article focuses on the India–Pakistan enduring
rivalry, which has persisted for 68 years, and this rivalry is marked by four wars,
and numerous instances of asymmetric warfare. The India–Pakistan rivalry has
proved to be the most enduring, and it simply does not show any sign of abate-
ment, and this conflict has become nested within the Pakistan–Afghanistan and
India–China regional rivalry and territorial dispute. In addition, the India–Pakistan
enduring rivalry has also become deeply enmeshed in the American-led Global
War on Terrorism (GWOT). This article reviews the vast literature on endur-
ing rivalry with particular focus on India–Pakistan to examine what factors have
led to the persistence and exacerbation of this rivalry and why it is displaying no
inclination towards termination.
Keywords
Enduring rivalries, India, Pakistan, terrorism, identity, nuclear weapons, territorial
conflict
Article
1 Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Asian Studies Program, Clark University, USA.
Corresponding author:
Srini Sitaraman, Department of Political Science, Asian Studies Program, Clark University, 950
Main Street, Worcester, MA 01610, USA.
E-mail: ssitaraman@clarku.edu
Journal of Asian Security
and International Affairs
2(2) 154–179
2015 SAGE Publications India
Private Limited
SAGE Publications
sagepub.in/home.nav
DOI: 10.1177/2347797015586125
http://aia.sagepub.com
Sitaraman 155
War tends to increase in severity and to decrease in frequency as the area of political and
legal adjustment (the state) expands geographically unless the area becomes as broad as
the area of continuous economic, social, and cultural contact (civilization).
War tends to increase both in frequency and in severity in times of rapid techno logical
and cultural change because adjustment, which always involves habituation, is a func-
tion of time. (Quincy Wright, A Study of War, 1942, p. 352)
Introduction
A major contribution of the enduring rivalry literature is that the same pair of
states—commonly referred to as dyads—are the cause for the majority of violent
territorial changes and low-intensity conflicts. An enduring rivalry is character-
ized by at least six militarized disputes during a 20-year period (Diehl, 1998;
Goertz & Diehl, 2000). It has been estimated that only about five per cent of all
‘rivalries develop into full-blown enduring rivalries’, but once established, they
last an average of four decades or longer (Goertz, Jones & Diehl, 2003). Enduring
rivalries are characterized by zero-sum perceptions, and the states involved have
become highly entrenched and consider each other as exceedingly threatening to
their security and physical survival, as exemplified by the India–Pakistan rivalry
that has endured over 68 years with four wars in 1948, 1965, 1971 and 1999, and
numerous instances of major asymmetric warfare in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005 and
2008.1 India and Pakistan are in a state of constant war readiness, and the exchange
of fire along the Line of Control (LoC) is a frequent daily occurrence (Sharma &
Kulkarni, 2015). This enduring rivalry has proved to be the most durable, and it
simply does not show any sign of abatement, and this conflict has become nested
within the Pakistan–Afghanistan and India–China regional rivalry and territorial
dispute. The Cold War also profoundly influenced the India–Pakistan enduring
rivalry and the bilateral relationship of the United States with India and Pakistan
by pitting the American ally Pakistan against the Soviet-allied India. India–
Pakistan rivalry became particularly exacerbated when the Soviet Union invaded
Afghanistan in December 1979 and the United States along with Pakistan’s
military ruler Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq launched covert warfare against the Soviets
in Afghanistan. General Zia-ul-Haq asserted that Pakistan had ‘earned the right’
to establish a friendly regime in Kabul and his country would not countenance any
‘Indian and Soviet influence’ in Afghanistan (Coll, 2004, p. 175).
The Pakistan–Afghanistan border dispute over the Durand Line, which sepa-
rates the two countries, and Pakistan’s sustained interference in Afghan politics
through Taliban and other proxies, and the equally long-standing rivalry and border
dispute between India and China have become a part of the India–Pakistan rivalry.
India has sought to exploit Pakistan’s soft power weakness in Afghanistan by
providing economic, medical, educational and civil assistance to Afghanistan, and
Pakistan has sought to check India’s progress by launching terror attacks against
Indian targets in Afghanistan.2 Moreover, Pakistan has sought to exploit the border
conflict between India and China by developing a deep security relationship
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