India–Pakistan Peace Process
| DOI | 10.1177/2347797013518401 |
| Published date | 01 April 2014 |
| Author | Bibhu Prasad Routray |
| Date | 01 April 2014 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
India–Pakistan Peace
Process: Intent and
Incapacity Paradox
Bibhu Prasad Routray1
Abstract
Attempts to stay engaged in a process of sustained dialogue and achieve incre-
mental progress towards peace by the Indian and Pakistani political leadership
suffered another setback in the form of cross-border firing and allegations of
ceasefire violations along the Line of Control and the international boundary in
2013. While New Delhi’s Congress party-led regime, facing parliamentary elec-
tions in 2014, buckled under pressure from an intrusive media and the opposition
political parties, the new civilian government in Islamabad, in its edgy relationship
with the country’s powerful military, put the peace project in the back burner.
As allegations and counter charges flew, incapacities of both countries to bring
the situation under control were reinforced. The article uses this case study to
assess the intent of as well as limitations on leadership of both countries for stay-
ing engaged in a process of dialogue. Not just their commitment to peace, but
the ability to defy the limitations would shape the future of Indo–Pak relations,
the article argues.
Keywords
India–Pakistan relations, Pakistan military, terrorism, Jammu & Kashmir, South Asia
Introduction
In the past decade, repeated attempts by political leadership of India and Pakistan
to leave behind a fractured and rancorous past notwithstanding, relations between
the two South Asian neighbours have remained tenuous. Forward movements,
albeit small and tentative, achieved though sustained processes of dialogue and
engagement, have been interspersed with attempts to create bottlenecks and irri-
tants by elements within Pakistan, with alleged links to the country’s military
establishment as well as the Jihadi terrorist infrastructure. Such incidents, in the
Article
Journal of Asian Security
and International Affairs
1(1) 79–105
2014 SAGE Publications India
Private Limited
SAGE Publications
Los Angeles, London,
New Delhi, Singapore,
Washington DC
DOI: 10.1177/2347797013518401
http://aia.sagepub.com
Bibhu Prasad Routray, Independent Security Analyst/Consultant, Singapore. E-mail:
bibhuroutray@gmail.com
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 1, 1 (2014): 79–105
80 Bibhu Prasad Routray
form of terrorist attacks on Indian soil, infiltration attempts by militants or cease-
fire violations across the international border by the Pakistan army, have marginal-
ized the country’s civilian leadership. In India, these incidents have empowered the
hardliners who profess an aggressive approach towards the country’s western
neighbour. Will peace ever be a reality between India and Pakistan, therefore,
remains one of the obstinate posers in South Asian politics.
This article seeks answer to the question: Are India and Pakistan capable of
achieving peace, which will lead to a stable South Asia or would their relations
continue to be marked by recurring tensions and crises, keeping the region unsta-
ble in the years to come? In assessing the future of Indo–Pak relations, the article
uses the case study of the political developments in both countries centred around
a series of ceasefire violations at the Line of Control (LoC) and the international
boundary between the two sides between October 2012 and October 2013. The
article is based on the assumption that such developments provide an ample con-
text to the incapacities demonstrated by leaderships of both countries to remain
engaged in a process of dialogue. With a prolonged history of hostility and prede-
termined notions defining their actions, attempts to establish normal relations by
both countries continue to remain hostage to issues, events and actors, no matter
however minor or less important they are.
The article focuses primarily on the developments since the formation of the
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government following the May 2013
parliamentary elections till the end of October 2013. Adopting a contemporary
analytical approach, the article evaluates the peace processes initiated between
the two countries in the last decade and seeks to assess the potential of the new
civilian regime in Pakistan and the political establishment in New Delhi to break
away from their troubled past.
The article analyzes the Indo–Pak relations in five parts. First, a brief back-
ground to the worsening of the bilateral relations, starting with the developments
at the LoC and the international boundary since mid-2012. Second, the capacities
of and challenges to the new Pakistan civilian government’s objectives of estab-
lishing a peaceful relation with India. Third, the Indian political establishment’s
position with regard to normalizing relations with Pakistan and the challenges it
encounters in pursuing such an objective. The fourth part sums up the findings
from the previous analyses and the concluding part provides recommendations for
the Indian government’s Pakistan policy.
New Rounds of Hostility
Majority of the pedagogic writings on Indo–Pak relations and the enduring con-
flicts between the two dismiss the prospects of durable peace among both South
Asian neighbours. Stephen Cohen (2002a) termed the conflict between the two
‘hard to manage and even impossible to resolve’. Terming it a ‘paired minority’
conflict, Cohen opined that each country has a tendency to view ‘itself as
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