US–Afghanistan Relations Post-withdrawal: Is There a Future?
| Published date | 01 September 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/23477970241265740 |
| Author | Zabih Ullah Shahnan,Ejaz Hussain |
| Date | 01 September 2024 |
Research Article
US–Afghanistan Relations
Post-withdrawal: Is
There a Future?
Zabih Ullah Shahnan1 and Ejaz Hussain2
Abstract
Since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, no country, including the
United States (US), has yet recognised the former. The US has consistently
urged the regime to comply with the Doha agreement that emphasised an
inclusive government. Moreover, the Biden administration has repeatedly
asked the regime to respect human rights and allow girls education and
employment, but in vain. What explains the divergences in US–Afghanistan
relations post-withdrawal? What is the trajectory of the US–Taliban ties in
the current context? Above all, is there any possibility of the US recognition
of the Taliban regime in the foreseeable future? Based on primary data, it
is posited that the relations between the US and the Taliban-controlled
Afghanistan are divergent and currently antagonistic due to the Taliban’s non-
compliance with the Doha agreement. Futuristically, the study explores three
scenarios to predict US–Afghanistan relations. First, there is a likelihood of
US–Afghanistan rapprochement if the Taliban do the US bidding. Second, in
cases of non-compliance, the US would get tough on the regime in terms of
further sanctions. However, the Taliban would consolidate (informal) ties
with China, Russia and other regional countries, including Pakistan. Third, the
US has the military capabilities to do regime change in Afghanistan in case of
another 9/11-type incident in the US.
Keywords
Afghanistan, Taliban, counterterrorism, women rights, US–Taliban relations,
South Asia
1 Department of Research and Development, Kardan University, Parwan-e-Du Square, Kabul,
Afghanistan
2 Department of Social Sciences, Lahore School of Economics, Lahore, Pakistan
Corresponding author:
Ejaz Hussain, Department of Social Sciences, Lahore School of Economics, Burki Road, Lahore 53200,
Pakistan.
E-mail: ejaz@lahoreschool.edu.pk
Journal of Asian Security
and International Affairs
11(3) 301–319, 2024
© The Author(s) 2024
Article reuse guidelines:
in.sagepub.com/journals-permissions-india
DOI: 10.1177/23477970241265740
journals.sagepub.com/home/aia
302 Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs 11(3)
Introduction
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan on 15 August 2021 and the consequent
collapse of the republican system have resulted in profound humanitarian,
economic and diplomatic failures for the former. The insurgent group had a swift
takeover of the country when the US and its NATO partners withdrew their security
forces from Afghanistan as per the Doha Agreement (February 2020). Since then,
the Taliban have been a de facto regime that has not yet been recognised by any
country in the world (Abawe et al., 2022; Toosi, 2021). Moreover, it seems that
the United States (US) has no plans to recognise the Taliban in the foreseeable
future due to competing interests. The former has reflected its post-withdrawal
policy behaviour in the sense that normalisation of relations with the Taliban
authorities relies on implementing the Doha commitments that the latter made on
counterterrorism, human rights, women education and, above all, establishing an
inclusive type of government (Faheem & Khan, 2022). However, the Taliban have
acted contrary in the past three years.
For instance, in late March 2022, the Taliban pledged to reopen girls’ schools, but
they have not stood by their promise. The killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone
attack was another incident that added to distrust between the Taliban and the US (US
Department of State, 2022a, 2022b, 2022c, 2022d). Moreover, the Taliban regime,
calling itself the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, faces some serious challenges, that
is, a humanitarian crisis. Though various observers urged the Western world to
financially help the ordinary residents suffering from an acute shortage of food, shelter
and medicines, few favoured the Taliban in terms of external legitimacy (Thomas,
2021). Ironically, the Taliban has so far acted in a manner that defies Western notions
of democracy, civil society and economic management.
Nonetheless, the US has exerted pressure on the Taliban regime to form an
inclusive government, respect human rights, allow women’s education and
guarantee the non-use of Afghan territory for terrorism against the US and its
European allies. What explains the divergences in US–Afghanistan relations post-
withdrawal? What is the trajectory of the US–Taliban ties in the current context?
Above all, is there any possibility of US recognition of the Taliban regime in
the foreseeable future? These are some pertinent questions that this study
attempts to address analytically and empirically. However, before addressing the
posed questions, it seems pertinent to review, briefly but critically, key studies
on the subject matter. The exercise would help with the contextualisation of
US–Afghanistan relations in the current context.
The majority of the existing literature on US–Taliban relations to date has
focused on probing the US withdrawal and highlighting the limitations of
improving bilateral relations. Other commentary has focused on expressing
scepticism over the future of the Doha Agreement, exploring the political identity
of the Taliban regime, gauging the responses of neighbouring countries, or
considering ways the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan can be mitigated. For
example, Joshua Snider in his article ‘Taliban 2.0 and US national security policy
in Afghanistan’ has explained the causes of US withdrawal from Afghanistan
and enumerated factors that could affect the US’ stance on the Taliban in the
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