Unpacking Public Satisfaction: An Analysis of the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections
| Published date | 01 December 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/23210230241293225 |
| Author | Vibha Attri,Jyoti Mishra |
| Date | 01 December 2024 |
Unpacking Public Satisfaction:
An Analysis of the 2024
Lok Sabha Elections
Vibha Attri1 and Jyoti Mishra1
Abstract
Voters’ perception of how satisfied they are with the work of the incumbent government is decisive
for their voting decision, with satisfaction in most cases leading to support for the incumbent govern-
ment and dissatisfaction leading to votes against it. This article is not about exploring the relationship
between satisfaction with the incumbent party’s performance and voting for it. The main objective is to
identify the factors that contribute to voter satisfaction. What aspects of the incumbent government’s
performance or policy influence their positive assessment? Considering the election campaigns and
prominent issues leading up to the elections and drawing insights from existing literature, this analysis
examines the potential determinants of voter satisfaction. It aims to identify how these factors explain
voter satisfaction or dissatisfaction. The findings reveal that voter satisfaction with the incumbent gov-
ernment during the 2024 Lok Sabha election was mainly influenced by recent and visible accomplish-
ments rather than long-term factors. The construction of the Ram Mandir and positive evaluations of
the government’s performance on economic issues played a significant role in increasing satisfaction.
Keywords
Voter’s satisfaction, incumbent performance, 2024 Lok Sabha election, election issues, retrospective voting
A significant determinant of voting choices, as emphasized in several studies, is the incumbent party’s
performance. Voters’ decisions regarding whom to vote for are greatly influenced by their level of
satisfaction with government performance. Previous literature indicates that voters’ perceptions and
evaluations of how well the incumbent party has governed directly influence the likelihood of re-election
(Besley, 2006; Dassonneville et al., 2015; Ferejohn, 1986; Key, 1966; Soderlund, 2008).
When citizens perceive a party to have performed effectively and met expectations during its last
term, they tend to maintain their allegiance and vote for that party. Conversely, voters may re-evaluate
and switch their preferences in response to the poor performance of the incumbent party (Soderlund,
2008). However, Dassonneville et al. (2015) found that those who switch parties are not necessarily
disenchanted with politics; rather, they are disillusioned with their former party’s performance.
Through this retrospective behaviour, citizens hold politicians and parties accountable for their actions
Original Article
Studies in Indian Politics
12(2) 318–335, 2024
© 2024 Lokniti, Centre for the
Study of Developing Societies
Article reuse guidelines:
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DOI: 10.1177/23210230241293225
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1 Lokniti-CSDS, New Delhi, Delhi, India
Corresponding author:
Jyoti Mishra, Lokniti-CSDS, New Delhi, Delhi 110054, India.
E-mail: jyoti@csds.in
Attri and Mishra 319
and choose leaders who will govern honestly and competently (Ferejohn, 1986). Key (1966), cited in
Healy and Malhotra (2009), argues that citizens fulfil their civic responsibilities by evaluating the
work done by the government and its overall performance when making their voting choices.
Retrospective voting occurs when citizens assess past governmental performance to guide their future
electoral decisions.
Data from Lokniti-CSDS post-poll surveys of Lok Sabha elections from 2004 to 2024 also show that
if people are satisfied with how the government is performing, they are more likely to vote for the party
of the incumbent government in the next election (Table 1). Over these five elections, the pattern is clear:
when voters are satisfied with the government’s performance, they tend to vote for the incumbent party.
Voters who were completely or somewhat satisfied with the government consistently demonstrated high
support for the incumbent. Support was highest among those who were completely satisfied. Conversely,
those who were fully dissatisfied were more likely to vote for other parties than the incumbent. These
results align with the literature supporting the notion that voter satisfaction is an important factor in
voting for the incumbent. Incumbent governments that successfully maintain high levels of satisfaction
are more likely to secure votes from these satisfied voters, and those governments that fail to meet
expectations risk losing favour and support in future elections.
However, this relationship is more complex in the Indian federal structure. Verma’s (2012) analysis
challenges the idea that general satisfaction with the central government’s performance determines
national election outcomes. Instead, voters consider the performance of the central government, state
government and constituency representatives (Verma, 2012). In India, ruling parties differ across many
states, and the nature of party competition varies among them; for the majority of voters, the performance
of the state government becomes more salient than that of the central government (Yadav & Palshikar,
2009, p. 406).
Nonetheless, one cannot ignore the possibility that voters may express their satisfaction or dissatisfaction
as a form of retrospective reasoning regarding their voting choices. Once voters have cast their ballots, they
might claim that they were satisfied or dissatisfied because of their choice rather than acknowledging that
their satisfaction initially influenced their voting decision. In short, voters may rationalize their voting
decisions after the fact rather than being guided by their satisfaction with the government. However, this
article does not seek to examine the direct relationship between voter satisfaction and the act of voting for
the incumbent party. Instead, its primary objective is to identify the factors that shape voter satisfaction.
What aspects of government performance or policy drive positive assessments? Are there specific indicators
that significantly influence voters’ evaluations of the government? This article adopts a comprehensive
approach to explore voter satisfaction with government performance, aiming to illuminate the key factors
that influence public perceptions.
Table 1. Vote for Incumbent Government by Level of Satisfaction with Their Performance 2004–2024.
Level of Satisfaction with the Performance
of the Incumbent Government
Vote for the Incumbent Party in Lok Sabha Elections
2004 2009 2014 2019* 2024
Fully dissatisfied 13 11 6 4 6
Somewhat dissatisfied 24 18 14 18 25
Somewhat satisfied 37 34 31 48 51
Fully satisfied 63 65 58 80 79
Source: Lokniti-CSDS Data Unit. National Election Studies (NES) 2004, 2009, 2014, 2019 and 2024.
Note: All figures are in percentage. *NES 2019 pre-poll.
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