Time of Vote Choice in India
| Published date | 01 June 2017 |
| DOI | 10.1177/2321023017698269 |
| Date | 01 June 2017 |
| Subject Matter | From Lokniti’s Data Archive |
From Lokniti ’s Data Archive
Time of Vote Choice in India
Shreyas Sardesai1
Jyoti Mishra2
Abstract
This piece analyzes the subject Time of Vote Choice in India, a hitherto under-researched aspect of
voting behaviour in the country. Using longitudinal data from National Election Studies conducted by
Lokniti between 1996 and 2014, it shows that voting intentions of India’s voters are increasingly crys-
tallizing before the start of the campaign period of an election. On the other hand, the proportion of
voters postponing their vote choice to after the start of a campaign has declined over the last two dec-
ades. This declining trend is unique to India as most Western democracies have registered an overtime
increase in campaign-period decision-making. While Indian voters who are less political, less partisan
and less exposed to media are more likely to be late deciders than early ones, nevertheless, we also
find that late deciders—both campaign-period and last-minute—have gradually become more politically
sophisticated and attentive over the years. In this respect, our findings validate both the traditional
floating voter theory of the Columbia School and some of the newer studies that have countered it.
Keywords
Vote choice, TOVC, NES, last minute, before campaign, during campaign, late deciders, early deciders,
pre-campaign, campaign period, voting day, national, state, elections
Introduction
In the study of voting behaviour in India, the subject of people’s vote choice has attracted the greatest
amount of attention from scholars. The bulk of research in this field thus far pertains to the political
Over the last two decades, Lokniti has conducted large-sized sample surveys in India during every national election as well as
nearly all state elections. These surveys have attempted to study voters’ political choices, their voting behaviour and their opin-
ions on a whole host of political issues. The consistency of the exercise has resulted in the creation of a vast archive of data on
Indian democracy. While several scholars of Indian politics have referred to these from time to time for their own research
needs, an adequate exploration of this rich archive with a view to inform and ideate about trends in Indian politics is lacking. From
this issue onwards, this section of Studies in Indian Politics attempts to fill this gap by bringing to its readers short analytical pieces
that make use/sense of Lokniti’s longitudinal survey data sets. The idea is to present empirical insights and research ideas emanat-
ing from the Lokniti archives to students and scholars of politics.
1 Research Associate, Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi, India.
2 Research Officer, Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi, India.
Corresponding author:
Shreyas Sardesai, 29, Rajpur Road, Civil Lines, Delhi 110054, India.
E-mail: shreyas.sardesai@gmail.com
Studies in Indian Politics
5(1) 82–91
© 2017 Lokniti, Centre for the
Study of Developing Societies
SAGE Publications
sagepub.in/home.nav
DOI: 10.1177/2321023017698269
http://inp.sagepub.com
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