The Religious Divide in Voting Preferences and Attitudes in the 2019 Election
| Published date | 01 December 2019 |
| Author | Shreyas Sardesai |
| DOI | 10.1177/2321023019874892 |
| Date | 01 December 2019 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Article
The Religious Divide in Voting
Preferences and Attitudes in the
2019 Election
Shreyas Sardesai1
Abstract
This article attempts to empirically test the claims made by several commentators that religious
polarization was at the core of the 2019 Lok Sabha election verdict. Relying heavily on the National
Election Study (NES) data sets, it finds that the election result was in large measure an outcome
of massive vote consolidation on religious lines, with the majority Hindu community preferring the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in unprecedented proportion
and the main religious minorities largely staying away from it, although there were some exceptions.
It shows that, for two national elections in a row, the Narendra Modi- and Amit Shah-led BJP has been
able to overcome the caste hierarchies among Hindus and systematically construct a Hindu category of
voters versus others. This chasm between Hindus and the minorities is also seen with respect to their
attitudes regarding the government, its leadership and contentious issues like the Ayodhya dispute.
This article, however, does not find sufficient evidence with regard to the claims that a large part of the
Hindu support for the BJP-led alliance may have been on account of anti-minority sentiments.
Keywords
Communal polarization, majoritarianism, Hindu consolidation, majority–minority divide, Hindu–Muslim
cleavage
Introduction
One of the many explanations offered for Narendra Modi’s return to power in 2019 despite a slowing
economy, agrarian crisis and record high unemployment is religious polarization and a further consolida-
tion of Hindu castes and communities under the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) majoritarian appeal. Ever
since the election result came out, several commentators have stressed on this particular aspect of the
verdict. The BJP’s unexpectedly high vote share and seat haul have been understood and explained by
them as a signpost of the consolidation of the Hindu vote bank (Hasan, 2019), as a culmination of a care-
ful crafting of Hindu persona on the prime minister (Khare, 2019), as evidence of the growing allure
Studies in Indian Politics
7(2) 161–175, 2019
© 2019 Lokniti, Centre for the
Study of Developing Societies
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DOI: 10.1177/2321023019874892
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1 Lokniti Programme, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi, India.
Corresponding author:
Shreyas Sardesai, Lokniti Programme, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi, India.
E-mail: shreyas.sardesai@gmail.com
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