The China Factor in Pakistan’s Geo-economic Tilt
| Published date | 01 April 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00208817241298339 |
| Author | Muhammad Jahanzaib,Zahid Shahab Ahmed |
| Date | 01 April 2024 |
https://doi.org/10.1177/00208817241298339
International Studies
61(2) 145 –169, 2024
© The Author(s) 2024
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DOI: 10.1177/00208817241298339
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Research Article
The China Factor
in Pakistan’s
Geo-economic Tilt
Muhammad Jahanzaib1 and Zahid Shahab Ahmed2,3
Abstract
In 1947, the establishment of Pakistan was accompanied by a profound security
dilemma, particularly concerning its relationship with India, a dynamic that continues
to significantly influence its foreign policy trajectory. Historically, Pakistan’s focus
on state security has driven its alliances, notably with the United States and, more
recently, with China. The dual objectives of achieving security through economic
development have become increasingly pronounced in the context of Pakistan’s
deepening partnership with China, especially as evidenced by the substantial
investments made in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Since the
inception of CPEC in 2015, Pakistan has actively sought to leverage this initiative
to provide landlocked Central Asian Republics with critical access to maritime
routes via the Gwadar Port. Confronted with numerous challenges, including a
severe economic crisis, Islamabad is progressively recognizing the necessity of
prioritizing geo-economics over traditional geopolitical considerations. This pivot
aims to capitalize on its strategic location to foster economic growth through
enhanced trade and connectivity, which is largely dependent on the partnership
with China. This study undertakes an in-depth analysis of archival data from both
primary and secondary sources to explore this phenomenon. This study argues
that Pakistan’s foreign policy increasingly reflects an embrace of geo-economics,
driven by a combination of domestic factors and China’s pronounced emphasis
on the geo-economic potential of CPEC. While Pakistan asserts a commitment
to prioritizing geo-economics, its relationship with China remains influenced by
enduring geostrategic considerations, particularly in relation to India.
Keywords
Pakistan, foreign policy, geo-economics, geopolitics, China
1Department of International Relations, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan
2National Defence College, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Corresponding author:
Zahid Shahab Ahmed, National Defence College, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
E-mail: zahid.ahmed@ndc.ac.ae
3Deakin University, Burwood, Australia
146 International Studies 61(2)
Introduction
Pakistan’s foreign policy is shaped by a range of factors, including ideational
factors, strategic considerations, domestic politics, regional and global trends.
Historically, Pakistan’s foreign policy was driven primarily by geo-strategic
considerations, but the state also aimed to achieve its security through economic
development (Ahmed & Akbarzadeh, 2023). By forging cooperation with many
countries, for example, China and the United States, Pakistan has been trying to
enhance its economic development and security vis-à-vis India. As national
interests are not stagnant, so is the case of foreign policy drivers that transform
over time. While India remains a key threat to state security, Pakistan suffers from
multiple crises including the economic meltdown. While Jaspal (2022) claims that
geo-economics has become a key feature of Pakistan’s foreign policy since the
start of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2015, there is no
empirical study available to examine how and why geo-economics has become a
key goal of Pakistan’s foreign policy. Focusing on security and economic
development, Pakistan’s foreign policy now emphasizes on leveraging its
geographical location by being a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
that aims to revive the ancient Silk Road (Shah, 2020). Therefore, this research is
timely to understand how and why geo-economics has gained prominence in
Pakistan’s foreign policy since CPEC’s initiation and the degree to which this new
direction is influenced by Pakistan’s relationship with China.
For several decades, Islamabad aims to achieve greater connectivity with
energy-rich Central Asia and now feels that this goal is more achievable because
of the BRI. Before BRI, infrastructural constraints and geopolitical tensions
hindered such ambitions. The BRI, with its focus on infrastructure development,
trade connectivity and regional cooperation, presents a strategic shift. The
initiative includes significant investments in rail, road and energy projects across
Central Asia, facilitating access to the region’s abundant energy resources and
expanding regional markets (Manish & Behera, 2021). Furthermore, enhanced
information and communications technology (ICT) connectivity within the BRI
framework addresses previous challenges related to infrastructure deficits,
promoting economic integration and development goals (Kunavut et al., 2018).
Thus, the BRI’s infrastructure and technological advancements present a stark
contrast to the pre-BRI era, offering a tangible pathway for Pakistan to achieve
greater connectivity with Central Asia. Hence, there was a greater emphasis on
geo-economics at the heart of Pakistan’s first National Security Policy (NSP) and
its ‘Vision Central Asia’ policy, which was produced in 2015 (GOP, 2022; MOFA,
2022a).
Geo-economics has gained popularity, although there is not a consensus on
what it means. First, it is often viewed in connection to geopolitics and therefore
regarded as the application of economic instruments to further geopolitical goals.
Second, geo-economics is viewed as a strategy involving the use of economic
tools of statecraft and geography to benefit through international economic
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