The BJP’s Fragile Mandate: Modi and Vote Mobilizers in the 2014 General Elections
| Author | Susan L. Ostermann,Pradeep K. Chhibber |
| Published date | 01 December 2014 |
| Date | 01 December 2014 |
| DOI | 10.1177/2321023014551870 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Military-Madrasa-Mullah Complex 137
India Quarterly, 66, 2 (2010): 133–149
A Global Threat 137
Article
The BJP’s Fragile Mandate: Modi
and Vote Mobilizers in the 2014
General Elections
Pradeep K. Chhibber
Susan L. Ostermann
Abstract
It has become commonplace to attribute the BJP’s victory in the 2014 Indian general elections to
Narendra Modi. In this article we unravel the Modi effect and argue that Modi’s success is tied to his
ability to attract ‘vote mobilizers’—individuals who campaign for the party—to the BJP. In 2014, the BJP
had more mobilizers than any other party. The BJP also had more vote mobilizers in 2014 than in 2004,
while the Congress had fewer. However, these mobilizers, while capable of increasing both turnout and
vote share for their chosen party, display little party loyalty or partisanship. Instead, they are drawn to
a winning candidate or party. Since it is ‘winnability’ that motivates mobilizers, their support for a party
is shallow and, potentially, fleeting. We conclude by claiming that the BJP’s victory is more fragile than
many assume.
Keywords
India, elections 2014, BJP, vote mobilizers, leadership, leader effect
Introduction
A common refrain in the Indian media during and after the 2014 national elections has centred on the role
of Narendra Modi as the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) star campaigner and vote mobilizer. Data
drawn from the Indian National Election Studies support this claim. In June 2013, 27 per cent of Indian
citizens planned to vote for the BJP, while another 27 per cent planned to vote for the Congress (NES
2013 Data). The race was neck-and-neck. Data from the same poll indicate that 19 per cent of respond-
ents were in favour of Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister of India. In July 2013, Modi was anointed
chief of the BJP’s Campaign Committee, a position many presumed to indicate that he would be the
party’s prime ministerial choice as well. In September 2013 this presumption was confirmed and he
campaigned all over the country addressing over 400 rallies. Less than a year later the BJP won a historic
vote in the national elections. The party’s vote share increased to 31 per cent. Data from the Indian
National Election Studies (post poll) conducted just after the national elections show that 36 per cent of
Pradeep K. Chhibber, Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA.
E-mail: chhibber@berkeley.edu
Susan L. Ostermann, Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA.
E-mail: sostermann@berkeley.edu
Studies in Indian Politics
2(2) 137–151
© 2014 Lokniti, Centre for the
Study of Developing Societies
SAGE Publications
Los Angeles, London,
New Delhi, Singapore,
Washington DC
DOI: 10.1177/2321023014551870
http://inp.sagepub.com
To continue reading
Request your trial