The 2019 Indian Elections and the Ruralization of the BJP
| Date | 01 December 2019 |
| DOI | 10.1177/2321023019874893 |
| Published date | 01 December 2019 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Article
The 2019 Indian Elections and the
Ruralization of the BJP
Diego Maiorano1
Abstract
The Indian general elections occurred amid a widespread and severe agricultural crisis. Many analysts
thought that this could have a substantial impact on the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP)
prospects to remain in office. This article, using post poll data, analyses the voting behaviour of two key
sections of the electorate, the rural poor and the farmers. It shows that the BJP drew substantial support
from both categories, across caste and class. Far from being a party of the urban upper classes and
castes, the results of the 2019 elections mark the culmination of a decades-long process of ruralization
and ‘proletarianization’ of the party.
Keywords
BJP, agriculture, farmers, 2019 elections, agricultural labourers, caste, class
Introduction
The results of the 2019 Indian general elections surprised most analysts, who had not predicted that the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would secure an absolute majority again—and with an increased seat and
vote shares. Most had predicted that the BJP would be the largest party, but very few thought it was pos-
sible for it to retain enough of the seats that it had won in 2014 and expand its support base to new areas.
But the BJP managed to do just that, replicating its virtually total sweep in North and West India—
despite a much more united opposition, particularly in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh—and winning a
considerably higher number of seats in the East and North East of the country.
The scale of the BJP victory is surprising particularly because economic conditions appeared far
from favourable. GDP growth had slowed down in the months leading to the elections, Modi’s promise
to create millions of jobs did not materialize—unemployment actually reached a 45-year high, accord-
ing to official estimates (TET, 2019)—and the implementation of the Good and Service Tax and the
demonetization of 86 per cent of the circulating cash in November 2016 negatively impacted small
businesses and the informal economy, which employs the large majority of the population. Furthermore,
there have been several large-scale farmers’ protests during Modi’s term, signalling widespread rural
distress. In fact, resentment in the countryside is thought to be a key reason behind the far from
Studies in Indian Politics
7(2) 176–190, 2019
© 2019 Lokniti, Centre for the
Study of Developing Societies
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DOI: 10.1177/2321023019874893
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1 Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Corresponding author:
Diego Maiorano, Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), National University of Singapore, 119620 Singapore.
E-mail: dmaiorano@nus.edu.sg
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