A Non-nuclear US Ally’s Nuclear Option: South Korea’s Case
| Published date | 01 March 2025 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/23477970241298760 |
| Author | Hwee-rhak Park |
| Date | 01 March 2025 |
Research Article
A Non-nuclear US
Ally’s Nuclear Option:
South Korea’s Case
Hwee-rhak Park1,2
Abstract
North Korea’s nuclear armament has placed South Korea in a dilemma, as it
can neither rely entirely on the United States’ nuclear extended deterrence
(NED) nor pursue its own nuclear weapons development (the nuclear option).
The reliability of the US NED has diminished, given North Korea’s ability to
deploy intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking the US mainland.
However, pursuing the nuclear option is fraught with difficulties due to the
stringent restrictions imposed by the international non-proliferation regime.
This article evaluates the feasibility of South Korea’s nuclear option using three
factors: opportunity, willingness and the availability of special nuclear materials.
The findings suggest that the feasibility of South Korea’s nuclear option is very
low. Consequently, the article advises the South Korean public to acknowledge
this reality rather than making emotional demands for the nuclear option.
Furthermore, it calls upon the international community to engage in discussions
and address the dilemma faced by non-nuclear US allies, such as South Korea,
in light of the growing threat of nuclear attacks from nuclear-armed states like
Russia and North Korea.
Keywords
Nuclear non-proliferation, North Korea nuclear, nuclear deterrence, South
Korea nuclear option, South Korea nuclear weapon
Introduction
During the Cold War, the prominent international relations scholar Hans J.
Morgenthau (1985, p. 141) concluded that a non-nuclear state cannot confront
Journal of Asian Security
and International Affairs
12(1) 29–53, 2025
© The Author(s) 2024
Article reuse guidelines:
in.sagepub.com/journals-permissions-india
DOI: 10.1177/23477970241298760
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1 University of the Massachusetts, Boston, USA
2 Kookmin University, Seoul, South Korea
Corresponding author:
Hwee-rhak Park, University of the Massachusetts, Boston, USA.
E-mails: hrpark5502@daum.net; hweerhakpark@gmail.com; hrpark5502@hanmail.net
30 Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs 12(1)
a nuclear state and must either surrender or face total destruction if attacked
by a nuclear power. As an ‘absolute weapon’, even a few nuclear weapons can
overshadow the combined strength of all conventional armaments. In this context,
the United States (US) has extended its nuclear deterrence, known as the nuclear-
extended deterrence (NED) or colloquially as the nuclear umbrella, to its allies.
These allies have relied on the expectation that the US would retaliate on their
behalf in the event of a nuclear attack. However, as France posed the question,
‘Will the United States risk New York to defend Paris?’ in the 1950s, US allies
have been left with lingering doubts about the credibility of the US NED. This
uncertainty has led them to contemplate pursuing their own ‘nuclear weapons
development option’ (hereafter, the ‘nuclear option’) when confronted with a
direct and aggressive nuclear threat.
However, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime, led by the US,
has made it exceedingly difficult for US allies to pursue the nuclear option, as
doing so could result in the serious damage to the US NED. Consequently, no
non-nuclear US ally has pursued its nuclear option since the establishment of the
NPT, whereas non-NPT members, such as Israel, India and Pakistan, along with a
self-withdrawn member, North Korea, have become nuclear-armed states. US
allies facing an aggressive direct nuclear threat find themselves in a serious
dilemma: they cannot pursue their nuclear option for fear of losing their alliance
with the United States, yet they cannot fully depend on the US NED due to
concerns that the US might unilaterally decide not to fulfil its promises at a critical
moment.
South Korea has become the US ally most acutely feeling this dilemma. A few
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members may also feel a similar
dilemma after hearing Russia’s frequent references to the possible use of tactical
nuclear weapons in the Ukraine War and the deployment of Russian nuclear
weapons to Belarus. In fact, North Korea has become increasingly aggressive in
recent times. At the plenary session of the Workers’ Congress on 30 December
2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared South Korea to be his country’s
‘main enemy’, described the relationship between the two Koreas as ‘belligerent’
and urged his military to prepare for ‘a great event to suppress the entire territory
of South Korea by mobilising all physical means and forces, including nuclear
forces’ (Jang & Kwon, 2024). Although this announcement could be dismissed as
mere bluster or a domestic message, South Korea cannot help but feel deep
concern about the possibility of a North Korean nuclear attack.
Already in early 2022, Kim Jong-un had instructed his military to be ready for
‘the second mission’, which appears to be the reunification of the entire Korean
Peninsula, while its first mission seems to be neutralise the US NED for South
Korea, as stated in his address on his country’s Armed Forces Day in April 2022
(Shin, 2022). He even revised his country’s law on nuclear forces in September
2022, adding a new section that designated the mission of its nuclear forces as
‘령토완정 (Ryeong-toe-wan-jeong)’, a newly coined term which literally trans-
lates to ‘complete territorial establishment/conclusion/rectification’, referring to
the annexation of South Korean territory (KCNA, 2022). The North Korean mili-
tary has frequently conducted short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) tests, such as
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