Hydro-Political Dynamics Between China–India–Pakistan: Dams and Transboundary River Governance Amidst Geopolitical Contestations
| Published date | 01 September 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/23477970241263154 |
| Author | Hari Godara,Jyoti M. Pathania,Gaurav Kumar |
| Date | 01 September 2024 |
Research Article
Hydro-Political Dynamics
Between China–India–
Pakistan: Dams and
Transboundary River
Governance Amidst
Geopolitical Contestations
Hari Godara1, Jyoti M. Pathania1 and Gaurav Kumar2
Abstract
Transboundary rivers raise critical concerns for state security amidst contem-
porary ecological strain and regional geopolitics in South Asia. The challenge
of ‘water security’ is underscored by the substantial reliance on transboundary
rivers, compounded by the multifaceted impacts of climate change and the sim-
mering geopolitical tensions among riparian nations, especially in the complex
dynamics between India–China and India–Pakistan. This study endeavours to
illuminate distinctive characteristics of the South Asian transboundary govern-
ance framework, wherein rivers are subjected to intensive damming aimed at
(a) harnessing hydroelectric potential and (b) leveraging water resources as
geopolitical bargaining chips, thereby exerting pressure; however, order is not
specified, particularly. In this intricate milieu, international conventions often fail
to reconcile internal contradictions inherent within the transboundary govern-
ance paradigm. Consequently, transboundary water resources have metamor-
phosed into an extension of geopolitical realities, embodying intricate interplay
between hydrology, geopolitics and state security within the region, especially
between China, India and Pakistan.
Keywords
Dam, transboundary water governance, hydro-politics, geopolitical tension,
India–China–Pakistan relations
1 Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana, India
2 Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Jain (Deemed-to-be University), Bangalore,
Karnataka, India
Corresponding author:
Hari Godara, Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat Narela Road,
Near Jagdishpur Village, Sonipat, Haryana 131001, India.
E-mail: harivanshmla@gmail.com
Journal of Asian Security
and International Affairs
11(3) 400–422, 2024
© The Author(s) 2024
Article reuse guidelines:
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DOI: 10.1177/23477970241263154
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Godara et al. 401
Introduction
The South Asian region, a vital hub for some of the world’s most significant
transboundary rivers, finds itself at a critical juncture characterised by mounting
geopolitical tensions and severe environmental concerns. This intricate interplay
has propelled the issue of water security to the forefront of strategic considerations
for the states bordering the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) range. At the heart
of this complex discourse lie ambitious plans to establish an extensive network
of hydroelectric dams, a development characterised as an unprecedented ‘water
grab’. India, with plans for nearly 292 dams in the Indian Himalayas, envisions
a future in which the region’s dam density would surpass that of any other in the
world. It is also important to highlight that this study involves states that have been
engaged in active military conflicts on various occasions and very frequent minor
border skirmishes with claims/counterclaims on one another’s territories. Varady
et al. (2023) explain this dynamic, pragmatic and ever-changing transboundary
relations through Kautilya’s Mandala concept: ‘one’s neighbour is one’s enemy
and neighbour’s neighbour naturally becomes one’s ally’. While the New Water
Justice Movements (NWJM)1 and approaches such as political ecology can
provide a substantial theoretical paradigm for this study, its scope falls short in the
unique cartography represented at the confluence of China, India and Pakistan,
with their powerful attempt to delegitimise current hydro-political borders and to
exert influence through all means available. When Foucault et al. (2008, p. 313)
defined hydro-social re-patterning attempt as a coercive act by powerful water
actors led by legal, economic and military compulsion backed by the government
(sovereign power), no extension or application was informed about the potential
use of water as a hydro-political extension for geopolitical significance among
different states.
Concurrently, China, already a significant player in dam construction, intends
to add another hundred dams to this landscape. These concurrent efforts transcend
economic endeavours, intricately intertwining with strategic imperatives that
possess the potential to reshape regional power dynamics. However, this surge in
dam development does not occur without consequences. While these projects
yield economic advantages and bolster hydropower capacity, they necessitate
a re-evaluation of geopolitical realities. China’s dominance as the ‘upstream
hegemon’ in the HKH region and its substantial control over water outflow
underscore the strategic leverage that water resources confer. These consequences
ripple downstream, impacting states dependent on these river systems where
geopolitical ally Pakistan, whose agrarian economy heavily relies on the Indus
River, is centred vis-à-vis adversary India, who happens to be an upper riparian of
Pakistan.
Figure 1 illustrates how both Pakistan (with Chinese support) and India have
intensified their bid to erect more dams and, very recently, the completion of the
Shahpurkandi barrage on the Ravi River (i.e., one of the five rivers of Panjab
under the Indus Water Treaty [IWT]) has stopped the flow of its water. It has
brought a strong reaction from Pakistan, with it being called ‘water terrorism’,
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