Forging Reconciliation Despite Antagonism: Examining the Normalisation of Ties Between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023
| Published date | 01 September 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/23477970241261433 |
| Author | Won-June Hwang |
| Date | 01 September 2024 |
Research Article
Forging Reconciliation
Despite Antagonism:
Examining the
Normalisation of Ties
Between Saudi Arabia
and Iran in 2023
Won-June Hwang1
Abstract
In April 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced the normalisation of diplomatic ties
with China’s mediation. Notably, Saudi Arabia sought China’s mediation during
Xi Jinping’s visit in December 2022. Why did Saudi Arabia seek reconciliation
while maintaining hostility with Iran? This study aims to uncover this puzzle
using a case study approach. It examines the case through two mechanisms:
reconciliation with one’s enemy and reconciliation with a friend’s enemy.
According to the first approach, Saudi Arabia had to manage external threats to
achieve the objectives of Vision 2030, an economic and social reform initiative
implemented in response to political and economic shocks in the region. The
second approach highlights Saudi Arabia’s complex relationship with the United
States. Through reconciliation, Saudi Arabia could attain considerable leverage
in this relationship. Its approach to Iran serves as an effective example of foreign
policy amid escalating tensions between the United States and China.
Keywords
Saudi–Iran reconciliation, Saudi–Iran rivalry, Saudi–US alliance, tethering, alliance
dilemma
Introduction
In April 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran resolved to normalise their diplo-
matic relations, facilitated by China’s mediation efforts (Aljazeera, 2023).
1 Department of Security Policy, The Korea National Defense University, Nonsan-si, Chungcheong-
nam-do, Republic of Korea
Corresponding author:
Won-June Hwang, Department of Security Policy, Korea National Defense University, Hwangsanbeol-
ro 1098beon-gil, Yangchon-myeon, Nonsan-si, Chungcheongnam-do 33021, Republic of Korea.
E-mail: hwj900126@naver.com
Journal of Asian Security
and International Affairs
11(3) 376–399, 2024
© The Author(s) 2024
Article reuse guidelines:
in.sagepub.com/journals-permissions-india
DOI: 10.1177/23477970241261433
journals.sagepub.com/home/aia
Hwang 377
This development appears unexpected, considering the long-standing antago-
nism between the two regional powers. Furthermore, it is crucial to recognise the
efforts of the United States in facilitating Saudi Arabia’s inclusion in the Abraham
Accords, which have normalised diplomatic relations between Israel and several
Arab countries. Additionally, the recent announcement by the I2U2 Group—an
emerging collaborative entity consisting of India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates
and the United States—has highlighted their intention to undertake a compre-
hensive networking and infrastructure project in partnership with Saudi Arabia
(Berman, 2023). Consequently, Saudi Arabia’s reconciliation with Iran does not
imply a dismissal of its relationships with the United States or its involvement in
aligned coalitions. This raises the research question: what factors motivated Saudi
Arabia to pursue a reduction in tensions?
Following the announcement of normalisation, numerous works have endeav-
oured to examine its underlying motivation and impact. The speculated motiva-
tion behind Iran’s decision was its desire to address internal political and economic
challenges (Zaaimi, 2023). Conversely, Saudi Arabia’s intent in pursuing recon-
ciliation was seen as a response to mitigating external threats, particularly drone
and missile attacks orchestrated by Iran-backed Houthi rebels (Shahidsaless,
2023). Certain analyses contextualise this rapprochement within the regional
framework. Consequently, alongside the Abraham Accords, the reconciliation
between Turkey and Arab states and even the resolution of the Qatar crisis, this
development is perceived as a response to regional fatigue resulting from pro-
longed conflicts, the imperative of economic rejuvenation, the escalating intensity
of power competition and the perceived diminishing regional engagement of the
United States (Vakil & Quilliam, 2023).
While existing analyses offer insights into the matter, they do not entirely elucidate
the recent actions taken by Saudi Arabia, which cannot be solely attributed to threat
mitigation. This study aims to investigate the motivation and underlying causal mech-
anisms driving Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of rapprochement. To this end, this study pro-
poses two hypotheses grounded in the theories of tethering and alliance dilemmas.
The tethering theory offers insights for explaining reconciliation with an enemy, while
the alliance dilemmas theory aids in understanding reconciliation with an ally’s
enemy. To test these hypotheses, a case study employing congruence procedure and
process tracing is conducted. The analysis supports the hypotheses, shedding light on
motivations behind Saudi Arabia’s decision to reconcile.
The remainder of this article is structured as follows: The next section reviews
the literature on the Saudi–Iran rivalry and provides historical context for their
relations. The third section introduces a theoretical framework for analysis, which
is applied in the fourth section. Finally, the conclusion discusses the implications
of the findings.
Literature Review
The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been the subject of numerous
studies in existing literature. Some research focuses on the overall dynamics of
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