Combinative Hedging: Japan and Russia in the East Asian Contested Hierarchical Order

Published date01 March 2024
DOIhttp://doi.org/10.1177/23477970241230378
AuthorYohanes Putra Suhito,I Gede Wahyu Wicaksana
Date01 March 2024
Combinative Hedging:
Japan and Russia in the
East Asian Contested
Hierarchical Order
Yohanes Putra Suhito1 and I Gede Wahyu Wicaksana2
Abstract
The recent developments in world politics have demonstrated that East Asia has
emerged as a critical locus for great power politics, characterised by the plural-
isation of power centres resulting from the competing strategic interests of the
United States and China. Indeed, the regional order’s power constellation is mov-
ing towards a contested hierarchical model. The first-tier United States seeks to
maintain its ‘plural hegemony’ through social compacts, while China fits within the
hierarchy as a second-tier state, gradually emerging as an influential actor on the
regional and global stage. Third-tier states, such as Japan, the world’s third-largest
economy, and Russia, with its abundant energy resources and military prowess,
have become potential swing players of influence within the evolving orders—
appropriate to their respective capabilities. Observing this dynamic geopolitical
environment, our article discusses the relationship between Japan and Russia as
they attempt to protect their interests within a pluralising region. We argue that
Japan and Russia take a combinative hedge, focusing on flexible collaboration,
enabling risk mitigation and maximising short or long-term benefits.
Keywords
Japan, Russia, combinative hedging, East Asia, decentred order
Introduction
What order has been formed in East Asia and how the regional states respond to the
order creation are intriguing questions continually debated by strategic decision-
makers and international relations (IR) scholars. The existing explanations of the
Research Article
Journal of Asian Security
and International Affairs
11(1) 76–93, 2024
© The Author(s) 2024
Article reuse guidelines:
in.sagepub.com/journals-permissions-india
DOI: 10.1177/23477970241230378
journals.sagepub.com/home/aia
1 Department of Logistics and Warehouse, Triple Jeans, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia
2 Department of International Relations, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia
Corresponding author:
I Gede Wahyu Wicaksana, Department of International Relations, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya
60286, East Java, Indonesia.
E-mail: wahyu.wicaksana@fisip.unair.ac.id
Suhito and Wicaksana 77
puzzle inform that arguments have revolved around the dynamics and develop-
ments at systemic and subsystem/unit levels. In the systemic arena, three streams
of theory are dominant: long-cycle theory (LCT), power transition theory (PTT)
and hegemonic stability theory (HST). Essentially, these theories deal with a
similar phenomenon of the connections of historical and structural changes to
power and position of the most influential states in world politics (Flint, 2017,
p. 218; Goldstein, 1988, p, 349; Pop, 2019, p. 677). The LCT argues that super-
powers rise and fall following a trend of cyclical leadership shifts over the last
120 years (Modelski, 2014, pp. 177–178). Power transition theorists stress the
role of an effective challenger to the status quo, pushing the process towards
a new order building (Lemke, 2002, p. 235; Organski, 1958, p. 19). The HST
followers, however, illuminate the importance of an existing constructive and
stable hegemonic power to make regional states comply with a rules-made order
(Snidal, 1985, p. 580; Webb & Krasner, 1989, p. 183).
Despite the significant intellectual contributions of the system-based theories,
two limitations are likely to be noted. First, the systemic theorists have overesti-
mated the functionality of a powerful state working from the top of the political
stage and, at the same time, underestimated the agency of the weaker or smaller
countries. Second, all three systemic theories imagine that there is, and there will
be, a single robust type of order established by the regional powers, in which the
role of one major state is indispensable to order creation. Nonetheless, these fea-
tures do not appear in today’s East Asia. Power politics is driving the order in the
region towards a contested hierarchical model, in which none of the cyclical
power shift, power transition or hegemonic stability picture has taken shape as
theorised. Therefore, we should move to see from the subsystem or unit theoreti-
cal perspective, which highlights foreign policy behaviour and national strategies
of not only the great powers but also the middle-sized ones in response to the top-
down disruptions.
There are various state-level responses to the systemic pressure which have
been well-theorised. The three most popular subsystem theoretical approaches to
East Asia are balancing, bandwagoning and hedging. We focus on hedging as our
contribution to advancing national-level security strategies. Thus, it is important
to understand the main driving force of change, making East Asia a critical locus
for contemporary world politics. East Asia is undergoing pluralisation of power
centres due to the competing strategic interests of the United States and China
(Nye, 2019, pp. 69–72; Wallerstein, 2003, p. 15). The United States has been
trying to maintain its order from declining since the collapse of the Bretton Woods
system to the 9/11 terror attacks and perhaps the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the
plural order, China has developed itself into an influential player on the regional
and international fronts (Bergsten et al., 2008, p. 9).
Furthermore, within the hierarchical order, as depicted by Goh (2013, pp. 208–209),
the great and middle states are structured according to their internal economic and
military capabilities as well as the external impacts of their national security
strategies on the new order–making process. Further, following Goh (2013,
pp. 209–222), we classify the main actors in the East Asian power contests into
three layers of states. The United States, the first-tier state, seeks to keep up its

To continue reading

Request your trial

VLEX uses login cookies to provide you with a better browsing experience. If you click on 'Accept' or continue browsing this site we consider that you accept our cookie policy. ACCEPT