Assembly Elections 2014–2016

AuthorHimanshu Bhattacharya,Vibha Attri
Published date01 June 2017
Date01 June 2017
DOIhttp://doi.org/10.1177/2321023017698276
Subject MatterSpecial Statistics
Special Statistics
Assembly Elections 2014–2016
Vibha Attri1
Himanshu Bhattacharya2
As a special feature, Studies in Indian Politics presents statistical report on the election results in all
states which went to polls since 2014. Data Unit of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies
(CSDS) earlier presented similar statistics (for elections that took place prior to 2014) through the pages
of Economic and Political Weekly (EPW).
The analysis covers aggregate data for these states which includes the summary of the electorate,
performances of all the parties in various districts classified by Election Commission of India and regions
classified by the Data Unit of CSDS. It also provides data on performance of major alliances and parties
by various types of constituencies.
The classification of constituencies by their rural–urban nature is based on Census 2001 and descrip-
tion of constituency boundary provided by the Delimitation Commission 2002–2008 read with the urban/
rural location indicated on the top sheet of electoral rolls for each polling booth area. Computation and
classification have been done by the Data Unit of CSDS.
The effective number of parties (ENP) for each election is calculated by weighting the contribution of
parties to the total number of parties with their respective votes (effective number of electoral parties
excluding independents and other smaller parties) or seats (effective number of parliamentary parties
excluding independents and smaller parties). It is calculated by using Markku Laakso and Rein Taagepera
(1979) formula: N = 1/Σpi2 (where N is the ENP, pi is each party’s fractional share of seats or vote and
Σ stands for the summation of overall components).
The full form to all the party abbreviations provided in the text can be seen from http://www.lokniti.
org/pdf/India-Political-Parties.pdf.
State Assembly Elections 2014
Fourteenth Assembly Elections Results in Andhra Pradesh
The Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly election of 2014 took place concurrently with the 16th parlia-
mentary elections. Elections to the 294-member assembly were held on 30 April and 7 May 2014. With
1 Researcher, Lokniti, CSDS, Delhi, India.
2 Data Analyst, Lokniti, CSDS, Delhi, India.
Corresponding author:
Vibha Attri, Researcher, Lokniti, CSDS, Delhi, India.
E-mail: vibhaattri@gmail.com
Studies in Indian Politics
5(1) 105–158
© 2017 Lokniti, Centre for the
Study of Developing Societies
SAGE Publications
sagepub.in/home.nav
DOI: 10.1177/2321023017698276
http://inp.sagepub.com
106 Studies in Indian Politics 5(1)
the passage of Andhra Pradesh Reorganization Act, 2014 in the Parliament by the Congress-led (United
Progressive Alliance-II [UPA-II]) government, the election that was held in the month of April 2014 became
the last one in integrated Andhra Pradesh. At 74.6 per cent, the voter turnout was two points higher than the
previous election (Table 1). The state of Telangana formally came into existence on 2 June 2014.
Across undivided Andhra, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and its ally Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won
126 seats and saw around 6 percentage increase in its vote share from 2009 elections. Youth, Labour and
Farmer Congress Party (YSRCP) won 70 seats with a vote share of 27.8 per cent. Telangana Rashtra
Samithi (TRS) contested in 119 seats and was victorious in 63 (Table 2). The party also saw a 10 percent-
age increase in its vote share from previous elections. Congress ended up as the biggest loser in these elec-
tions. It saw a decline of 135 seats and around 25 per cent in its vote share from previous elections. The
TRS and TDP stormed to power in Telangana and Seemandhra, respectively (see Tables 3 and 4 for results).
The TRS was comfortably ahead in most of the districts of Telangana except Rangareddi, Hyderabad
and Khammam. The TDP-led alliance’s best performance came from Rangareddi and Hyderabad
districts (Table 5). Variation from this trend could be seen in Seemandhra and districts falling under it.
The TDP-led alliance was ahead in 8 districts out of the total 13 (Table 6). The TDP-led alliance was the
leading party in coastal region of Andhra winning 83 seats. On the other hand, in Rayalaseema, YSRCP
was victorious in 33 out of the total 56 seats. The remaining 23 went to TDP-led alliance (Table 7).
Congress’s decision to divide the Telugu-speaking state turned public sentiments against the party in
both Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra regions from where it could not win a single seat.
The electoral wave was in favour of the TRS in all types of constituencies in Telangana—be they
reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) and general constituencies but its best
performance was in SC reserved constituencies (Table 8). In Seemandhra, YSRCP was the biggest recip-
ient of both votes and seats in constituencies reserved for STs. The TDP-led alliance won 89 out of the
total 139 seats in general constituencies and 48 went to YSRCP (Table 9).
The TRS enjoyed support in both rural and urban Telangana, though the support was higher in rural
and semi-urban constituencies (Table 10). The performance of TDP–BJP alliance and YSRCP in
Seemandhra across both rural and urban localities was impressive but TDP alliance led everywhere
(Table 11).
An analysis of the results by the proportion of Muslim population in Telangana reveals that the worst
performance of TRS was in high Muslim-concentrated seats (30 per cent and above). In Seemandhra,
YSRCP performed better in high Muslim-concentrated constituencies and TDP alliance in low Muslim-
concentrated constituencies (Tables 12 and 13).
Table 1. Summary of Electorate
Total Seats 294 Change from 2009
Electorate 64,934,138 7,041,879
Voters 48,492,467 6,395,601
Valid votes 48,400,406 6,341,960
Turnout (%) 74.68 +1.96
Source: Election commission data compiled by CSDS data unit.
Attri and Bhattacharya 107
Table 2. All Party Performance in Undivided Andhra Pradesh
Parties
Seats
Contested Seats Won
Change from
2009 Vote (%)
Change from
2009
Vote (%)
in Seats
Contested
TDP + BJP 295 126 +32 36.67 +5.71
TDP 237 117 +25 32.53 +4.41 40.03
BJP 58 9 +7 4.13 +1.30 21.72
YSRCP 266 70 +70 27.88 +27.88 30.84
TRS 119 63 +53 13.68 +9.69 34.04
INC 286 21 −135 11.71 −24.84 12.02
MIM 35 7 0 1.52 +0.69 12.37
BSP 253 2 0 0.95 −1.89 1.09
CPM 68 1 0 0.84 −0.59 3.53
CPI 38 1 −3 0.53 −0.70 4.11
NPT 31 +1 0.12 +0.12 12.00
NOTA 294 0 0 0.64 +0.64
Other parties 2547 2 −18 5.47 −16.70
Source: Election commission data compiled by CSDS data unit.
Note: Effective number of parties (votes): 4.583; effective number of parties (seats): 3.736. Other parties’ seats and vote share
include: JASPA, LSP, PPOI, AAP, YSRPP, MASP, SDLPI, MBT, YTP, FBL, ICSP, RPI(ATHA), RPS, NCP, RLD, RPK, WPOI,
ANC, SDPI, TECPI, MCPI(U), BCUF, SP, TPS, DABP, JAP, HJP, PJDL, CPIML(L), SHS, NBNP, BMUP, LJNSP, RDHP,
TLP, ARPS, JD(U), RPI(K)/RPI(AMB), GGP, RJD, IUML, SUCI, JD(S), BJS, GAAP, JNP, RSP, RPI, SOP, other parties and
independents.
Table 3. All Party Performance (Telangana)
Parties
Seats
Contested Seats Won
Change from
2009 Vote (%)
Change from
2009
Vote (%)
in Seats
Contested
TDP + BJP 117 20 −21 21.58 −4.55
TDP 72 15 −24 14.55 −6.26 23.67
BJP 45 5 +3 7.03 +1.72 19.16
TRS 119 63 +53 34.04 +24.07 34.04
INC 113 21 −29 25.02 −8.34 26.23
MIM 20 7 0 3.74 +1.66 20.87
YSRCP 92 3 +3 3.36 +3.36 4.37
BSP 102 2 +2 1.35 +0.16 1.56
NOTA 119 0 0 0.78 +0.78
Other parties 1106 3 −8 10.13 −17.15
Source: Election commission data compiled by CSDS data unit.
Note: Effective number of parties (Votes): 4.814; Effective number of parties (Seats): 2.998. Other parties’ seats and vote
share include: CPM, CPI, LSP, MASP, MBT, AAP, PPOI, YTP, FBL, RPI(A), JASPA, RLD, WPOI, TECPI, ANC, ICSP, RPK,
MCPI(U), BCUF, TPS, DABP, NCP, SHS, PJDL, TLP, BMUP, JAP, GGP, IUML, SP, NBNP, GAAP, RDHP, BJS, JD(U), JNP,
RSP, RJD, SOP, SUCI, RPI, other parties and independents.

To continue reading

Request your trial

VLEX uses login cookies to provide you with a better browsing experience. If you click on 'Accept' or continue browsing this site we consider that you accept our cookie policy. ACCEPT