Foreign Trade Review

Publisher:: Sage Publications, Inc.
Publication date:: 2021-08-12

ISBN:: 0015-7325

Issue Number

Latest documents

Ex-Ante Evaluation of India’s Trade Alliance with Indo-Pacific Region: A General Equilibrium Analysis
The study attempts to analyse the economy-wide impact of Indo-Pacific alliance between India and rest of the 45 participating members using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We introduce four simulation scenarios in the general equilibrium model. The first scenario is the one in which India bilaterally liberalises trade in terms of both tariffs liberalisation alone and then removal of tariffs and reduction of non-tariff barriers together with all the countries of Indo-Pacific region. The second scenario is when India bilaterally liberalises trade with all the Asian countries of the Indo-Pacific region. The third scenario is when India bilaterally liberalises trade with all the countries of the Indo-Pacific region but excludes China from the region because of the current geopolitical reasons. The fourth scenario is the one when free trade is considered among all the countries in the Indo-Pacific region. The Indo-Pacific alliance seems to go beyond strategic alliance with the 46 Indo-Pacific participating countries, wherein the members gain due to potential movement of capital and welfare and economic gains because of tariff and non-tariff liberalisation among the member countries. The article suggests the road map for maximum welfare gains for India, keeping strategic and economic engagements with other member countries and sub-regions. JEL Code: F15
Book review: Sugata Marjit, Biswajit Mandal, and Noritsugu Nakanishi, Virtual Trade and Comparative Advantage: The Fourth Dimension
Sugata Marjit, Biswajit Mandal, and Noritsugu Nakanishi, Virtual Trade and Comparative Advantage: The Fourth Dimension, Singapore: Springer-Nature, 2020, Ä75.89, 207 pp.
Ex-Ante Evaluation of India’s Trade Alliance with Indo-Pacific Region: A General Equilibrium Analysis
The study attempts to analyse the economy-wide impact of Indo-Pacific alliance between India and rest of the 45 participating members using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We introduce four simulation scenarios in the general equilibrium model. The first scenario is the one in which India bilaterally liberalises trade in terms of both tariffs liberalisation alone and then removal of tariffs and reduction of non-tariff barriers together with all the countries of Indo-Pacific region. The second scenario is when India bilaterally liberalises trade with all the Asian countries of the Indo-Pacific region. The third scenario is when India bilaterally liberalises trade with all the countries of the Indo-Pacific region but excludes China from the region because of the current geopolitical reasons. The fourth scenario is the one when free trade is considered among all the countries in the Indo-Pacific region. The Indo-Pacific alliance seems to go beyond strategic alliance with the 46 Indo-Pacific participating countries, wherein the members gain due to potential movement of capital and welfare and economic gains because of tariff and non-tariff liberalisation among the member countries. The article suggests the road map for maximum welfare gains for India, keeping strategic and economic engagements with other member countries and sub-regions. JEL Code: F15
Russia-Ukraine War and WTO’s National Security Exception
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is one of the most flagrant violations of international law in recent times. The Russian action has received global condemnation with various countries imposing sanctions on Russia. This article argues that concerning imposing trade sanctions against Russia, countries can rely on the national security exception in the World Trade Organization (WTO). The relevant legal provision in this regard is Article XXI of the General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). The article undertakes a doctrinal analysis of GATT’s Article XXI. This analysis is conducted in the light of two WTO disputes—the Russia: Transit case and the Saudi Arabia: Intellectual Property case—that have interpreted the national security exception. The article argues that while the national security exception given in GATT’s Article XXI is not self-judging, countries will enjoy deference in determining their essential security interests. The article then applies this doctrinal understanding to the current Russia–Ukraine war. The current situation will fall under Article XXI, and countries can impose trade-restricting measures against Russia (such as suspension of the most-favoured-nation treatment) following Article XXI of GATT. JEL Codes: F13, F19, F52, F51
Book review: Sugata Marjit, Biswajit Mandal, and Noritsugu Nakanishi, Virtual Trade and Comparative Advantage: The Fourth Dimension
Sugata Marjit, Biswajit Mandal, and Noritsugu Nakanishi, Virtual Trade and Comparative Advantage: The Fourth Dimension, Singapore: Springer-Nature, 2020, Ä75.89, 207 pp.
The J-Curve Effect in Services Trade: A Disaggregated Analysis
This article examines the relationship between the real exchange rate and the services trade balance in the UK using the quarterly data for the 2005Q1–2019Q4 period. We consider the aggregate as well as disaggregated trade across five services categories. We employ linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The non-linear model, in particular, allows consideration of asymmetric response of the trade balance to depreciations as opposed to appreciations. The findings indicate little evidence of a long-term improvement in the trade balance following depreciation, and suggest the absence of J-curve effect. The effects of domestic, ‘rest of the world’ GDP and monetary base on the trade balance were respectively negative, positive and mixed. JEL Codes: F14, F31, C22
Russia-Ukraine War and WTO’s National Security Exception
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is one of the most flagrant violations of international law in recent times. The Russian action has received global condemnation with various countries imposing sanctions on Russia. This article argues that concerning imposing trade sanctions against Russia, countries can rely on the national security exception in the World Trade Organization (WTO). The relevant legal provision in this regard is Article XXI of the General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). The article undertakes a doctrinal analysis of GATT’s Article XXI. This analysis is conducted in the light of two WTO disputes—the Russia: Transit case and the Saudi Arabia: Intellectual Property case—that have interpreted the national security exception. The article argues that while the national security exception given in GATT’s Article XXI is not self-judging, countries will enjoy deference in determining their essential security interests. The article then applies this doctrinal understanding to the current Russia–Ukraine war. The current situation will fall under Article XXI, and countries can impose trade-restricting measures against Russia (such as suspension of the most-favoured-nation treatment) following Article XXI of GATT. JEL Codes: F13, F19, F52, F51
Revisiting the Gravity Model of Migration
The recent global migration pattern indicates the importance of the movement of people from developing countries to developed countries in search of better economic opportunities. The G20 report of ‘International Migration and Displacement Trends’ mentions India at the top of the list of highly educated emigrants in G20 countries. The current study addresses the endogeneity problem in the migration determinants and attempts to highlight the major regional and economic determinants of migration flow from India to major OECD countries using the Gravity model of migration. We apply the Prais–Winsten regression method to address the cross-sectional correlation, while we apply instrumental variable regression and Hausman–Taylor regression estimation techniques to deal with the endogeneity issue. The findings reveal that the population of India, distance, common official language and per capita income differential are the major determinants of migration from India. In the backdrop of our findings, in terms of per capita income differential, there is a need for an upward revision in the pay scale of the white-collar workers in the organised sector. JEL Codes: C23, F22, J11, J60
The J-Curve Effect in Services Trade: A Disaggregated Analysis
This article examines the relationship between the real exchange rate and the services trade balance in the UK using the quarterly data for the 2005Q1–2019Q4 period. We consider the aggregate as well as disaggregated trade across five services categories. We employ linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The non-linear model, in particular, allows consideration of asymmetric response of the trade balance to depreciations as opposed to appreciations. The findings indicate little evidence of a long-term improvement in the trade balance following depreciation, and suggest the absence of J-curve effect. The effects of domestic, ‘rest of the world’ GDP and monetary base on the trade balance were respectively negative, positive and mixed. JEL Codes: F14, F31, C22
Impact of FDI and Its Absorption Capacity on the National Innovation Ecosystems: Evidence from the Largest FDI Recipient Countries of the World
Foreign direct investment (FDI) improves economic growth by stimulating native investment, facilitating technology transfers in the recipient country and increasing human capital development, thus playing a vital role in economic development. On the other hand, innovation is also considered one of the major drivers for the economic growth of a country. This study empirically investigates the impact of FDI and its absorption capacity on the national innovation system of the world’s top five largest FDI recipient countries for the period of 1990–2016. Using two-stage analysis (DEA and Tobit regression), we found that research and development expenditures, researchers in the host country and the number of patents, trademark and industrial design applications are positive drivers of the national innovation systems. Moreover, the FDI inflows positively impact the innovation efficiency in the host countries. However, the strength of this relationship depends on the availability of the absorption capacity of FDI in the host country. The result shows that the global financial crisis and inflation negatively impact the FDI inflows and innovation efficiency in the sample countries. It concludes that FDI inflows and the country’s strength of domestic absorption capacity are essential drivers for developing national innovation ecosystems. JEL Codes: F1, F4, G10, M21