Foreign Trade Review

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• Book review: Soumyen Sikdar, Ramesh Chandra Das and Rajib Bhattacharyya (Eds), Role of IT–ITES in Economic Development of Asia: Issues of Growth, Sustainability and Governance

  Soumyen Sikdar, Ramesh Chandra Das and Rajib Bhattacharyya (Eds), Role of IT–ITES in Economic Development of Asia: Issues of Growth, Sustainability and Governance. Springer, 2020, pp. 329, Ä109.99 (Hardback), Ä79.99 (Paperback), ISBN 978-981-15-4205-3.

• Special Issue on ‘Global Trade and FDI: The Road Ahead’
• FDI: Hot or Cold Money? The Behaviour of Sectoral FDI Inflows and Outflows Over Periods of Growth Accelerations and Decelerations

  The economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic invokes questions about a possible prolonged economic deceleration. In this article, we study the impact of output growth accelerations and decelerations, as per the definition of Arbache and Page (2007, More growth or fewer collapses? A new look at long run growth in Sub-Saharan Africa [Working Paper 4384]) and Conceicao and Kim (2010, The asymmetric impact of growth fluctuation on human development: Evidence from correlates of growth decelerations and accelerations. Mimeo), on sector-level foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and outflows for a group of 34 OECD countries in the period 1995–2019. The results show that Finance services FDI and transport services FDI inflows are countercyclical, while manufacturing FDI outflows are procyclical. Transport services FDI outflows are countercyclical, and the most significant determinant of both FDI inflows and outflows is the control of corruption, respectively, in the host and home countries. JEL Codes: F21, O16, O19

• Foreign Direct Investment and Output Volatility Nexus: A Global Analysis

  Volatility in output growth remains a genuine concern around the globe because of its detrimental effects on growth, poverty and welfare. In the realm of output volatility, the role of FDI and its consistency is particularly important and worth considering. This article examines the role of FDI inflows and specifically the instability in it on output growth volatility using a panel dataset of 141 world economies for the period 1971–2017. The study employs a variety of estimation techniques like pooled ordinary least squares (POLS), LS fixed effects (FE), LS random effects (RE), two stage least squares (2SLS) and generalised methods of moments (GMM). Findings of the study suggest that FDI acts as the volatility reducing factor, whereas uncertainty in it increases output volatility. On the policy front, this study recommends policies that not only encourage FDI inflows but also ensure the inflows to be more consistent and stable. Our results are robust corresponding to various above-mentioned estimation techniques and sensitivity analysis. JEL Codes: C23, E32, F21

• The Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on FDI Inflows Into India: Some Empirical Results

  After a run of adverse investor-state dispute settlements, India has recently denounced all its erstwhile investment treaties. New investment treaties need to be negotiated on the basis of a new Model Treaty that privilege state rights over investor rights. We study the impact of bilateral investment treaties on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India before the denunciation with the intent of inferring the consequences of changing the system. Our work captures the effects of international investment agreements on FDI inflows specifically into India. We construct an empirical model drawing on the Gravity Model, and estimate parameters using generalised method of moments. The results show that while the individual signing of bilateral investment treaties does not influence the inflow of FDI, the effect of the cumulative bilateral investment treaties signed is statistically very significant—suggesting that the spill over effect of signing a series of bilateral investment treaties are important, signalling a regime of overall protection to investors. The importance of institutional variables in influencing FDI tells us that overall participation in a system governed by international investor agreements influenced the inflow of FDI positively and therefore recent policy changes should be viewed with caution. JEL Codes: F21, F23, F550, F63, K33, O19, C22, C29

• Analysing Opportunities for India in Global Value Chains in Post COVID-19 Era

  In recent years, trade in intermediate goods has increased manifold with the emergence of global value chains (GVCs). China has emerged as one of the leading countries in the whole GVC network; many countries, including the USA, are heavily dependent on China for the intermediates in the manufacturing sector. The outbreak of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdowns in many countries, including China, have disrupted the supply in GVCs. This situation has led to the search for alternative markets for intermediates for the sustainable-production process. This study looks at how India can be an alternative avenue for the USA in place of China in the GVC network. It investigates the extent of participation of the countries under study in the GVCs and the gains resulting from it. The main focus of the research is to determine the emerging opportunities for India in GVCs, through correlating the USA industries which are vulnerable to disruption in GVCs as caused by China to those industries of India in which India enjoys a comparative advantage. The analysis reveals that in the ‘textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products’ and ‘chemicals and non-metallic mineral products’ industries, India could be a replacement of China for the USA. JEL Codes: F10, F13, F15

• The Dynamics of Export Diversification, Economic Complexity and Economic Growth Cycles: Global Evidence

  This article investigates the dynamics of export diversification, economic complexity and economic growth cycles. By applying several econometric techniques for estimating a panel data set of 70 economies over the period from 1996 to 2014, the results have been threefold. First, there is Granger bi-directional causality between economic complexity and export diversification, while unidirectional Granger causality exists from economic complexity to economic growth cycles. Second, the result attained from the three-stage least squares estimate demonstrates that economic complexity and export diversification significantly impact each other. Notably, the effect of economic complexity is found to be negative on economic growth cycles, implying that the dynamics of economic complexity and export diversification generate a reduction in economic fluctuations. Third, by splitting the sample into two subsamples (i.e., 32 high-income economies and 38 low- and middle-income economies) and two sub-periods (i.e., 1994–2007 and 2008–2014), the results show that the positive dynamics between economic complexity and export diversification are consistent with income levels and time periods. However, the negative impact of economic complexity on economic growth cycles is statistically significant only for the group of high-income economies and during the 1996–2007 period. These findings are checked by several estimators and different proxies of export diversification, economic growth cycles and economic complexity. JEL: F13, F14, O19, E32

• Determinants of Export Diversification: Evidence from Fractional Logit Estimation Model

  This article empirically explores the key drivers of export diversification in a large panel of 101 countries consisting of 43 high-income, 47 middle-income, and 11 low-income countries from 1995 to 2019. Considering the fractional nature of the dependent variable (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), the estimates are obtained using the fractional logit technique with a set of potential determinants of export diversification for all country samples and three sub-samples. The results reveal that human capital accumulation, GDP per capita, population, trade openness, the share of manufactured output to GDP, and FDI are important determinants of export diversification. However, the share of agriculture to GDP and official exchange rate promotes export concentration. Contrary to our all-country estimation, GDP per capita and population act as deterrents to export diversification in low-income countries. In addition, the results show that the value-added in agriculture plays a dominant role in strengthening the export structure of high-income countries. Our findings suggest that policymakers should implement and reform policies targeting human capital accumulation, trade openness, investment, and value addition in the manufacturing sector for diversifying the export structure. JEL Codes: C33, F14, J24, O1

• The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Supply Chain Operations: A System Dynamics Approach

  Epidemic outbreaks are one of the important sources of the risk in the global supply chains. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global industries that were unprepared for disruptions experienced a decline due to the pandemic. A global supply chain is a complex system set of dynamics that could be analyzed by the system dynamics approach. In this article, the impact of the recent pandemic on the global supply chain is simulated in different scenarios. A system dynamic model is developed to carry out the simulations. In order to consider the impact of the pandemic on the exogenous and endogenous variables, a force majeure factor is defined in the model. Global features considered in this article are the export and import operations, the exchange rate and the rate of tariff. In this article, a scenario analysis is performed to analyze two important factors of the global supply chain: force majeure factor and delivery delay. Results showed that improving the flexibility of production capacity is one of the important strategies that global supply chain managers should pursue. JEL Codes: F23, P45, C15, C63, E37, F17

• India’s Merchandise Exports to Asia: A Constant Market Share Analysis

  The present study attempts to examine the structural changes in Indian merchandise exports to Asia during the period 1980–2016 by using Constant Market Share (CMS) analysis. The index values of the CMS analysis suggest that India has mostly maintained and strengthened its export market share primarily in resource-based and low tech/labour-intensive products. Major technology-intensive exports include organic chemicals and dyes and colouring materials to all its export destinations in Asia. The market effect result shows a positive impact on India’s export performance which suggests that India has diversified its exports to South Asia, Southeast Asia and West and Central Asia. However, market adaptation effect result shows negative impact in East Asian market which means that India is lacking in adapting the import structure of this market. JEL Codes: F1, F14, F43, L6, O53

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